Japanese leaders and often the media too have substituted symbols for strategy in dealing with Asia. This comprehensive review of four periods over twenty years exposes the strategic gap in viewing individually and collectively China, Taiwan, the Korean peninsula, Russia, Central Asia, and regionalism.
Russian Strategic Thought toward Asia (Strategic Thought in Northeast Asia)
Traditionally Russia has been overlooked as an East Asian nation. But with a long Pacific coast line and a strategic border with China, it has not only a geographic presence in the region, but can be rightly called a power in East Asia. This volume explores Russia’s post-Cold War relationships with its neighbors in Central, East, South, and Southeast Asia.
This book provides a comprehensive survey of Japanese-Russian relations from the end of the Russo-Japanese War until the present. Based on extensive original research in both Japanese and Russian sources, it traces the development of relations from the tumultuous pre-war period, through the Second World War, Cold War and post-Cold War periods. Considering the wider international situation, domestic influences and ideological factors throughout, it shows how the hopeful period of the late 1990s - when Japanese-Russian relations briefly ceased to be acrimonious, and it seemed that normal relations might be established - was not unique. Joseph P. Ferguson argues there have been several previous occasions when rapprochement seemed possible, which in the end proved elusive: rapprochement frequently becoming the victim of domestic factors which frequently worked against and took precedence over good relations. The book concludes with an assessment of the present situation and of how relations are likely to develop in the immediate future.
Book (Entire Book download) .pdf
The National Bureau of Asian Research in Seattle publishes its volume Strategic Asia every year. Each chapter gives an in-depth assessment of economic, political, and military trends in the region and an analysis of the various strategies of each regional player. Fragility and Crisis, the third volume in the series, examines the weaknesses and fractures affecting the strategic environment.
This Wall Street Journal article examines the trends in the energy sector in East Asia that are leading toward patterns of instability, particularly with regards to China, India, and Japan. These changes will fuel a complex web of diplomatic ties and alliances that are likely to complicate and occasionally frustrate the United States’ own energy diplomacy.
Articles written while vice president at the National Council for Eurasian and East European Research.
“Nordpolitik: Japan’s New Russia Policy,” Journal of Public and International Affairs, vol. 1, 1998, pp. 24-46.
“Japan’s Attempts to Formulate a Silk Road Strategy,” Cyber Caravan, Vol. 1, No. 3, Central Asia and Caucasus Institute, Johns Hopkins University, SAIS, Feb. 14, 1999
“Getting Past the Kurils,” The Moscow Times, November 29, 2000.
“Russia’s Role on the Korean Peninsula and Great Power Relations in Northeast Asia,” NBR Analysis, Vol. 14, No. 1, June 2003, pp. 33-50.
“North Korea: The Korean Nuclear Crisis—On to the Next Level,” (chapter co-authored with Nicholas Eberstadt) chapter in Strategic Asia 2003-04: Fragility and Crisis. Seattle, Wash.: The National Bureau of Asian Research, 2003.
“Renminbi Revaluation,” NBR Briefing, No. 14, Sept. 22, 2003.
“Al Qaeda’s Threat to Japan: Tokyo’s Wake Up Call to the War on Terrorism,” Terrorism Monitor, Vol. 2, Issue 2, Jamestown Foundation, Jan. 30, 2004.
“The Diaoyutai-Senkaku Islands Dispute Reawakened,” China Brief, Vol. 4, Issue 3, Jamestown Foundation, Feb. 4, 2004.
“A New Twenty Years Crisis?” North Korea Review, Vol. 1, Issue 1, Jamestown Foundation, Feb. 27, 2004.
“Japan-Russia-U.S. ties in Roosevelt’s Spirit,” International Herald Tribune/Asahi Daily, March 18, 2004.
“Asia’s Energy Insecurity is a Dilemma for the U.S.”, (article co-authored with Mikkal Herberg), Asian Wall Street Journal, March 22, 2004.
“The North Korea Nightmare,” (article co-authored with Nicholas Eberstadt) The Weekly Standard, August 30, 2004.
“The Sad State of Vladivostok,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol. 1, Issue 69, Jamestown Foundation, Aug. 9, 2004.
“Japan Seeks Improved Relations with Russia,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol. 1, Issue 76, Jamestown Foundation, Sept. 1, 2004.
“China Not Giving Up on Russian Oil and Gas,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol. 1, Issue 89, Jamestown Foundation, Sept. 21, 2004.
“Russian Government Proposes Resolution to Northern Territories Dispute,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol. 1, Issue 129, Jamestown Foundation, Nov. 17, 2004.
“Submarine Incursion Sets Sino-Japanese Relations on Edge,” China Brief, Vol. 4, Issue 23, Jamestown Foundation, Nov. 24, 2004.
“Putin to Cancel Japan Trip?” Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol. 1, Issue 139, Jamestown Foundation, Dec. 3, 2004.
“Russia Opts for Pacific Route, but Helping China Save Face,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol. 1, Issue 148, Jamestown Foundation, Dec. 16, 2004.
“Japanese Prime Minister Declines Invitation to Moscow V-E Day Celebrations, ” Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol. 2, Issue 49, Jamestown Foundation, March 11, 2005.
“Are Moscow and Tokyo Doubting Wisdom of Nakhodka Project?” Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol. 2, Issue 68, Jamestown Foundation, April 7, 2005.
“Group of Eight Wrap-up: No clear measure of success,” PacNet No. 36, July 20, 2006.
“Fishing Wars: Japan-Russia relations continue downward spiral,” PacNet No. 41, Aug. 22, 2006.
“Sakhalin Oil and Gas Projects: What is Behind Russia’s Coercive Behavior?” Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol. 3, Issue 182, Jamestown Foundation, Oct. 3, 2006
“Russian Strategic Thinking toward Central, South, and Southeast Asia,” in Russian Strategic Thought toward Asia, co-edited with Gilbert Rozman and Kazuhiko Togo, Palgrave/MacMillan, New York, NY, 2006, pp. 205-229.
“Japanese Strategic Thinking toward Russia,” in Japanese Strategic Thought toward Asia, co-edited with Gilbert Rozman and Kazuhiko Togo, Palgrave/MacMillan, New York, NY, 2007, pp. 201-224.
“Disappointment in Dushanbe,” PacNet No. 47, Sept. 9, 2008.
“Building a Silk Road: U.S.-Japan Cooperation for Afghanistan and Central Asia,” Pacnet No. 11, Feb. 13, 2009.
“Territorial Dispute Takes Second Place to Russian-Japanese Economic Cooperation,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol. 6, Issue 36, Jamestown Foundation, Feb. 24, 2009.
“The Ural Summits: BRIC and SCO,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol. 6, Issue 119, Jamestown Foundation, June 22, 2009.
“A Northeast Asian Solution for Af-Pak,” co-authored with Drew Thompson, PacNet No. 49, July 9, 2009.
“The Russian Far Eastern Energy Complex and Russia’s Reemergence in East Asia,” co-authored with Eugene Rumer, in Global Strategic Assessment 2009, INSS, the National Defense University, September 2009, pp. 252-253.
“Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama Meets President Medvedev in New York,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol. 6, Issue 183, Jamestown Foundation, Oct. 6, 2009.
The Northern Distribution Network and Afghanistan: Geopolitical Challenges and Opportunities, Andrew C. Kuchins, Thomas M. Sanderson (contributors Daniel Kimmage, Joseph Ferguson, Alexandros Petersen, Heidi Hoogerbeets, David Gordon), Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC, 2010.
“The U.S.-Japan Alliance and Russia,” in The U.S.-Japan Security Alliance: Regional Multilateralism, Takashi Inoguchi, G. John Ikenberry, and Yoichiro Sato (eds.), Palgrave/Macmillan, New York, NY, 2011.
Articles published quarterly in the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Pacific Forum journal Comparative Connections, 2000-2009 (see web site: www.csis.org/pacfor/ccejournal.html)
Articles published in various Japanese, and Russian journals.
Russian Strategic Thought toward Asia, co-edited with Gilbert Rozman and Kazuhiko Togo, Palgrave/MacMillan, New York, NY, 2006.
Japanese Strategic Thought toward Asia, co-edited with Gilbert Rozman and Kazuhiko Togo, Palgrave/MacMillan, New York, NY, 2007.
Japanese-Russian Relations, 1907-2007, Routledge Press, London, 2008.
“A Perspective on Russia Today,” The National Intelligence Council, Arleigh House, Warrenton, VA, February 2001.
“Japan and the North Korean Nuclear Crisis,” The Japan-America Society of Washington, Seattle, WA, October 29, 2003.
“The Politics of Japanese-Russian Energy Relations,” The Kennan Institute, Washington, DC, July 23, 2004.
“Japanese Strategic Thinking in the Late 1980s,” Princeton University, Sept. 23, 2004.
“Japan and Central Asia,” Princeton University, Oct. 8, 2004.
“Japanese Strategic Thinking in the Early 1990s,” Princeton University, Oct. 15, 2004.
“Japanese Strategic Thinking in the Late 1990s,” Princeton University, Nov. 12, 2004.
“Japan’s Evolving Relationship with Russia,” Princeton University, Dec. 9, 2004.
“Realignment, Regionalism, and Strategic Thought in Asia—The Russian View,” Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC, Feb. 11, 2005.
“A More Assertive Russia?” Princeton University, March 3, 2005.
“Russian Relations with Central Asia and India,” The Moscow Carnegie Center, Moscow Russia, March 17, 2005.
“U.S. Foreign Policy and International Relations in East Asia,” Midwestern State University (Texas), March 29, 2005.
“Russian Foreign Policy under Vladimir Putin,” Princeton University, April 4, 2005.
“Russia and South-Central Asia,” Princeton University, April 13, 2005.
“Japanese-Russian Relations and Great Power relations in Northeast Asia,” Princeton University, May 7, 2005.
“The Dynamics of Trilateral Ties Among Beijing, Delhi, and Moscow,” AAASS, Salt Lake City, Nov. 5, 2005.
“Transformation and Great Power Diplomacy in Northeast Asia,” University of Washington, Feb. 6, 2008.
“The Politics of Japanese-Russian energy cooperation in Northeast Asia,” University of Washington, Feb. 9, 2008.
“Transformation and Great Power Diplomacy in Northeast Asia,” LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas, Feb. 12, 2008.
“Roles of the Japan-U.S. Alliance in dealing with Neighbors: An American perspective on Russia,” Japan-U.S. Alliance Project Conference, Japan Foundation CGP, Honolulu, HI, January 31, 2009.
“Strategy and Policy for Afghanistan: What methods for U.S.-Sino Cooperation?,” National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, China, May 14, 2009.
“Strategy and Policy for Afghanistan: What methods for U.S.-Sino Cooperation?,” The George C. Marshall Center, Garmisch-Partnekirchen, Germany, May 21, 2009.